The 2024 presidential election remains the tightest of the century, making it the closest White House race in the last 60 years.
The polling data following the September 10 debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris indicates a slight lead for the vice president over her Republican opponent. However, the race remains highly competitive and falls within the margin of error, making it too close to predict a clear winner, especially when considering the Electoral College.
Recent polls released by CBS News and NBC News on Sunday show Harris with a lead of 4 and 5 points, respectively, marking some of her strongest numbers yet. Despite this, her lead is notably narrower compared to previous Democratic nominees' polling margins in 2016 and 2020.
When analyzing the broader scope of national surveys post-debate, including polls from ABC News/Ipsos, Fox News, and The New York Times/Siena College, Harris maintains an average lead of 3 points according to the latest CNN Poll of Polls. Throughout the year, neither candidate has managed to establish a lead of 5 points or more in national polling, even following Harris' well-received debate performance against Trump, which only marginally shifted voter opinions.
You'd need to go back to the 1960 campaign to find a race where the major-party nominees were consistently within 5 points of each other in the national polling average. In every election year since then, there have been at least three weeks when one candidate held a lead of 5 points or more.
A 3-point lead in the national polls isn't a guarantee of security for Harris. Historical data since 1948 shows that, on average, the difference between pre-election polls and Election Day results has been around 3 points. In certain years, like 2020, the margin of error has been even higher, highlighting the unpredictability associated with relying solely on polling data.
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